Prior Lake, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

962
FXUS63 KMPX 041955
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
255 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scatted thunderstorms are forecast through
  9PM/10PM this evening. A few thunderstorms could become strong
  to severe with the main threats being heavy rain, lightning,
  gusty winds, and a few instances of hail up to 1 inch.

- Quiet and warm weather is expected Sunday through at least
  Monday night. The next best chance for showers and
  thunderstorms arrives late Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

19Z satellite shows partly cloudy skies across central and
southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A muggy afternoon and
evening is expected with temperatures continuing to warm into
the 80s and dew points rising into the upper 60s and 70s. The
muggy conditions will also allow the atmosphere to continue to
destabilize with SBCAPE values peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg
range this afternoon. This instability combined with a weak
passing overhead disturbance will support some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and
evening. However, expect thunderstorms to be more pulse-like
due to rather weak 0-6km shear values around 20 kts at best,
mid-level lapse rates around 6.4 C/km, DCAPE values of 800 to
900 J/kg, and overall weak ascent. Should a thunderstorm be able
to last long enough to become strong to severe, the threat
looks to be gusty winds and instances of hail up to 1 inch.
Periods of heavy rainfall are also possible with PWATs right
around 1.5-1.6 inches. Because of the over pulse-like nature of
thunderstorms, it will be difficult to pin point exactly where
they will develop. That being said, the greatest coverage,
timing, and chances (up to 60%) of thunderstorms looks to be
across central Minnesota through 6PM. This is due to being in
closer proximity to better upper-level support. There is
generally a 30% to 40% chance of a shower or thunderstorm across
Minnesota and western Wisconsin through 9PM/10PM this evening.
Chances quickly decrease after sunset but an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for southern portions through
2AM.

Upper-level flow is forecast to be more northerly on Sunday as a
ridge begins to build into the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
This means that height rises aloft will suppress most convection
chances to close out the holiday weekend. That being said, a
stray shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon hours cannot
be ruled out for far southeastern Minnesota. Chances of this
occurring are only around 15% at best. There is a reasonable
amount of consensus that the positively aligned ridge axis will
move over the area on Monday. So Monday`s forecast calls for a
warm day with highs in the mid 80s and mostly sunny skies. By
Monday evening, shower and thunderstorm chances return as a weak
shortwave traverses the area. Because the wave passes over
later in the day/closer to sunset, overall coverage is forecast
to be on the lower end. If the shortwave traverses the area
earlier in the afternoon and around peak heating on Monday, more
areas could see showers and thunderstorms.

A more potent shortwave and an associated front looks to
approach the forecast area late Tuesday into Wednesday. This is
currently the next best chance (60% to 70%) for showers and
thunderstorms across the area. For Thursday and Friday, a
largely zonal pattern looks to set up with embedded shortwaves
passing through. There is a reasonable amount of uncertainty on
timing and strength of the shortwaves which will influence the
shower and thunderstorm chances to end the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop in
the general area of KAXN between 20Z and 21Z. Convection then
shifts to the south and east through 04Z Sunday. Isolated
thunderstorm development could occur near KMKT until 08Z. All
thunderstorm potential is reflected as PROB30 groups at this
time due to 30 percent confidence in direct impacts to any
given terminal. If a terminal does see rain this afternoon and
evening and clouds clear out overnight, low cloud/fog
development is possible. There is some uncertainty in how dense
any fog/low cloud cover will be so went with a FEW010 or SCT010
group at this time.

KMSP...Thunderstorm chances have continued to trend later, with
the greatest potential at KMSP between 00Z and 04Z Sunday. If
there is rain at or in the area this evening and clouds clear
out fast enough, there is potential for fog/low cloud
development in the 10Z to 16Z timeframe Sunday morning.
Confidence in how dense any fog/low cloud cover will be is
rather low at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR, with low MVFR potential in morning. Winds N 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Winds SE 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc TS overnight. Winds SW 5-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...WFO MPX