Prior Lake, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

931
FXUS63 KMPX 242343
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
643 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms develop this evening across southwest
  to central MN, spreading into southeast MN western WI
  overnight into Monday AM.

- Summer-like warm through Thursday. Tuesday is forecast to be
  the warmest day with highs in the low 90s possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

A pleasant afternoon is underway across much of the Upper
Midwest. Temperatures have warmed into the 70s and 80s with
mostly sunny skies & relatively light wind. One cannot draw up a
much nicer late May day. Unfortunately, all good things must
come to an end and today`s nice weather is not different. There
will be scattered thunderstorms that develop this evening across
portions of west and southwest Minnesota. A few of these storms
could become strong to severe capable of producing large hail
and damaging winds. SPC expanded their level 1 (Marginal) and
added a level 2 (Slight) risk areas across SW/WC MN for this
evening`s severe threat. Forecast soundings reveal 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE, sufficient wind shear, and modest forcing that will
arrive prior to sunset. Low level lapse rates will be steep
given with an inverted V sounding present. This will cause some
updrafts to strengthen and produce large hail and possibly gusty
winds. Low level moisture is modest - dew points struggle to
get into the upper 50s but better mid-level moisture will be
enough to get over the hump. The most favorable corridor appears
to be along the MN river valley south to the I-90 corridor. A
few storms will hold on to clip E MN and W WI overnight, but
severe potential wanes by midnight.

For Memorial Day, dry conditions are expected behind the
lingering overnight convection. Skies should clear up nicely
by mid-late morning. Temperatures will climb further as
southerly winds ramp up. High temperatures push into the upper
80s with dew points in the lower 60s. Latest guidance supports a
broad area of 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE overhead by Monday afternoon.
If we take a few forecast soundings across MN and W WI, they all
reveal a mostly capped environment under rising heights. The
missing ingredient is any meaningful forcing aloft - something
key to overcoming that low level capping. If a storm could form,
hail would be the primary concern.

For Tuesday/Wednesday, models show surface dewpoints climbing
into the 60s, with PWATs increasing to around 150% of normal.
Temperatures will warm further, into the upper 80s to lower 90s,
it looks like diurnal destabilization may be enough to break
through capping in the afternoon hours. This should lead to
isolated pulse thunderstorms capable of producing isolated
damaging wind gusts. Forecast soundings support a limited threat
of severe weather. Looking ahead into next weekend, we`ll be
under the heart of an omega block. Surface wise, we`ll be west
of high pressure over the Great Lakes that drops down from
Hudson Bay. This will result in a prolonged period of cooler,
dry easterly winds. This will help push highs back down to more
normal values, into the 70s, but also dry our the surface low
level moisture. Needless to say, with an airmass this dry moving
in, it will be difficult to see any precipitation. Long range
guidance would hint that a warmer than normal & drier than
normal pattern sets up for the first half of Summer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR for all TAF sites to start but a few clusters of TSRA have
developed in response to afternoon heating and peak instability
of the day. Some of these may make a run for RWF-MKT-MSP going
into the early evening hours, producing brief MVFR or IFR
conditions. Mid-to-high ceilings are likely from late evening
through much of the overnight hours, along with scattered -SHRA
for mainly far southern MN into western WI during the overnight
hours. A few select hours of TSRA potential is there for most
TAF sites, mainly after midnight but prior to sunrise.
Visibilities may well drop into MVFR range should any decent
rainfall move across any given site but ceilings are expected to
remain within VFR range. Skies will then gradually clear out
from around sunrise onward on Memorial Day. Winds will remain
generally southerly throughout with speeds in the 6-10kt range,
potentially a bit higher and gusty during the day tomorrow.

KMSP...Will monitor radar to see if ongoing convection at
initialization looks to reach MSP but have included a TEMPO to
account for this activity as it will be fairly close. Otherwise,
have maintained the same timing for the overnight convection,
looking for the window of -SHRA to be in the 05z-10z range,
with TSRA roughly 07z-10z. CAMs are still relatively all over
the place with the location/timing of overnight convection so
this timing may shift a bit yet.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SSW 5-10kts.
WED...VFR with P.M. MVFR/-TSRA possible. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC